Ryan Serhant doesn’t traffic in panic. He sells aspirations—penthouses, views, and vision. So when the star broker behind Netflix’s Owning Manhattan warns of a seismic change in New York City real estate, people tune in.
In a recent Bloomberg interview, Ryan Serhant predicted that NYC will become “the pied-à-terre capital of the United States” by the end of the decade. The catalyst? A permanent shift in how America works, lives, and places value on space.
“Our strongest markets aren’t urban markets,” Ryan Serhant said. “Urban markets are coming back, but they’re becoming pied-à-terre markets.”
For developers, investors, and brokers watching office occupancy tick upward—but not quite rebounding to pre-pandemic norms—this statement hits like a red flag in a white-glove market. The city isn’t dying. It’s just evolving. But into what?
The hybrid work era has minted a new class of buyers. One who can afford to live elsewhere but wants access to the cultural capital of New York on their terms.
From the Hamptons to Hudson Valley to Georgia, Ryan Serhant sees affluent professionals opting to live where they want and land in New York when needed. His brokerage just opened an office in Atlanta. Expansion westward is already underway.
It’s a mindset shift that is already reshaping listing strategy.
“Everywhere else, people are moving,” Ryan Serhant said. “They are willing to commute if they don’t have to be in the city on, let’s say, Mondays or Fridays… There is strong demand for property everywhere as people diversify assets, and you are seeing interest rates come down,” he added.
To some, this signals economic diversification. To others, it reads like gentrification’s final act. TikTok commentary on Ryan Serhant’s interview is split down the middle.
“Bro sells real estate to the richest individuals in the world,” one user posted. “There will always be demand from them to acquire more assets. His opinion completely disregards those living paycheck to paycheck.”
Another added, “So he’s excited about an entire city of empty apartments instead of actual New Yorkers inhabiting them?”
Though many are seeing the change themselves. “He’s right,” one person wrote. “Most people aren’t in the city full time anymore.”
But within the real estate community, there’s quiet agreement. Luxury inventory is increasingly moving to buyers who treat it like a portfolio piece, not a primary residence. The interest rate drop? Only accelerating that trend.
For developers, Ryan Serhant’s forecast changes the math.
The buyer pool isn’t gone—it’s just different. Full-time residents looking to raise families in Manhattan are harder to find. Instead, the pied-à-terre crowd wants flexibility, cachet, and hassle-free access. Think: low-maintenance, turnkey properties with premium amenities and proximity to cultural anchors.
If developers were banking on a full return to a five-day office culture, they may need to recalculate. Office-to-resi conversions won’t save every tower. But well-located, boutique properties with strong branding? That’s a different story.
While NYC’s urban core may soften in full-time demand, interest is surging in ex-urban and Southern markets.
Ryan Serhant’s Georgia office isn’t a fluke. It’s a signal.
Atlanta, Miami, and Austin—these cities are capturing buyers who once viewed Manhattan as a default. Now, NYC competes not just with the suburbs, but with entire states.
Developers looking to future-proof portfolios may start targeting properties that serve as “urban base camps”—homes that offer New York’s access without the long-term residency.
Ryan Serhant’s warning is not an obituary. It’s a market alert.
If New York becomes a city of second homes, the question for developers, landlords, and planners is clear: how do you build for someone who’s not always there?
For now, eyes are on the high end. But ripple effects could hit the rental market, retail corridors, and community development models.
The playbook is shifting. And for those willing to adapt, there is plenty of runway left.
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