The U.S. housing market in 2025 is many things — tight, uncertain, expensive — but above all, according to Gary Keller Williams leadership, it’s unpredictable.
At the brokerage’s annual Family Reunion conference, Executive Chairman Gary Keller didn’t mince words. “We have to be aware that we’re moving into a very economically risky period in America,” he told a packed room of agents.
Gary Keller and his executive team painted a picture that industry professionals won’t soon forget: a market that refuses to crash, but stubbornly resists recovery — all while political and economic forces outside the industry churn with unusual intensity.
Vice President of Content Strategy Jay Papasan framed the current moment in a broader historical context. “We looked back in history and there’s two times in the U.S. that we’ve seen the government really remade substantially,” he said. “Under FDR, we had the New Deal, and then under Eisenhower, there were a lot of changes as well. So, it is not unprecedented, but it does create unpredictability.”
“And do businesses and investors like things to be predictable or unpredictable?” Papasan asked rhetorically. Everyone in the room already knew the answer.
The new federal administration’s sweeping cuts and restructuring have added new layers of complexity. For housing professionals accustomed to tracking rates and supply curves, this shift into political risk territory represents unfamiliar terrain.
Despite all this, Gary Keller Williams forecasts roughly 4.2 million existing-home sales this year — slightly up from 2024. But that volume is being driven by necessity, not opportunity.
“We know people move because they’re getting married, they get divorced, they have babies,” said Papasan. “I think that there’s the timeless stuff that motivates people even when the market is not favorable, and that’s where we need to focus. Those sales are still going to happen.”
Still, the broader numbers are flat. And expectations, Gary Keller warned, may need adjustment.
“It’s not getting progressively better right now,” he said. “But if you go back and you look at history, it typically takes three to four years to get out of it.”
That puts recovery into late 2026 — or later.
Gary Keller has long argued against the doomsday narrative — but he’s also no cheerleader. The real estate industry, he believes, is operating at a low but stable point.
“I don’t want to jinx it on the other side, but it hasn’t gotten worse than this in over 25 years. When I look at 2008, when it was just horrible, it was still around the level it is today,” Papasan added.
That historical context matters — especially for buyers spooked by mortgage rates still hovering around 6.5%.
“When we started Gary Keller Williams in 1983, look at where rates were, in the teens, and we thrived,” Gary Keller reminded agents.
Despite higher borrowing costs and affordability issues, KW leaders continue to emphasize action.
“You might be buying at the top of the moment, but you’re never buying at the top of the market, because it always goes up,” said Jason Abrams, head of industry and learning.
“We definitely could see appreciation if nothing happened but interest rates dropped, but they aren’t motivated to drop rates right now,” Gary Keller noted.
Even so, he believes consumers are beginning to adapt to this rate environment. The real danger, he suggested, comes not from the market as it is, but from what could happen.
“It would take a black swan event for home prices to drop,” Abrams said. “When we ask the question of what would it take to drive prices lower, it turns out that it is something crazy.”
But that “something crazy” might not be so far-fetched. Keller raised serious concerns about immigration policy and its knock-on effects on the construction sector.
“In Texas alone, 25% of the construction industry is undocumented workers. If they were to leave tomorrow, all bets are off because there’s no replacement for them at the prices they are willing to work,” he said.
The stakes? A serious labor shortage, a halt in building activity, and rising unemployment.
Amid all the speculation, the Gary Keller Williams team is urging agents not to freeze.
“Making the choice to sell no homes is silly,” Abrams said. “The reality of it is that you aren’t competing with 1.5 million Realtors but far fewer. At the end of the day, the volume is there.”
For real estate professionals navigating 2025, the strategy isn’t just about optimism or pessimism. It’s about understanding that certainty is off the table.
And that unpredictability is now the most predictable part of the market.
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